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Leg 2 - 2016, Forecast

To: John Neal and crew of  "Mahina Tiare"
To: John Neal and the crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp
Route: Tromso to Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen
Departure: 0600utc Friday, June 17, 2016
Prepared: 0830utc Thursday, June 16, 2016

Summary:
1) Light N-NE to NE winds today, but
2) There will be a stronger NE to N wind developing tomorrow (Fri), especially heading offshore to NW and N, as low pressure lifts N thru Gulf of Bothnia
a) wind into 20s offshore, and seas will be up to 4-6 ft, which
b) you may have tough heading N into this breeze
3) Strongest N flow for about 100 nm to N to about 71 30n, then diminishes and trends left into N to NW, as you get further N
4) Weak ridge axis of high pressure near Bear Island during Fri PM/night, while low pressure lifts N of northern Scandinavia, which
a) this will result in wind diminishing and shifting left into NW by Sat
b) wind speeds down to 10-15 kts
5) High pressure then builds toward the central Norwegian coast during Sun, then across northern Scandinavia on Mon
6) With this high pressure to SW and S, there will be a W-NW to W flow on Sun, then stronger from W to W-SW on Mon
a) wind mainly around 10 kts on Sun, but
b) look for wind more into teens to 20 kts on Mon
7) Ridge of high pressure shifts more N during Tue, which will result in lighter conditions developing
8) if stopping at Bear Island, it looks best to resume again during Tue, and
9) If W wind still too strong, then as ridge lifts N, evening lighter conditions expected Tue night into Wed
a) wind shift into SW to S and SE on Wed, mainly around 10 kts or less
10) also, if N-NE headwinds too strong on Fri, then better to delay departure until Sat, as there will be a lighter N-NE to N flow over area, due to weaker low to E and high pressure to W
a) Wind speeds down to mainly in teens

Routing:
1) Close to direct route as possible to Bear Island, then stopping sometime late Sat or Sat night
2) Think you can resume again with lighter conditions Tue into Wed\
3) Estimated positions listed below

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Thu, June 16
18: 010-040/ 6-12
Weather'|Partly to variable cloudy

Fri, June 17
00: 040-070/ 4-8
06: 040-070/ 4-8 departing
09: 020-040/ 12-18 heading offshore
12: 010-030/ 18-26
18: 010-030/ 18-26
Weather'|Variable cloudiness
Seas building to 5-7 ft rougher chop from N-NE

Sat, June 18 - flow diminishes and turns left into NW
00: 360-020/16-22
06: 330-350/14-20
12: 300-320/10-15 nr 72 30n/ 18w
18: 300-320/10-15
Weather'|Variable cloudiness
Seas down to 3-4 ft from NW or W-NW

Sun, June 19
00: 290-310/ 7-12 nearing or arrive to Bjornoya (Bear island)
06: 270-290/ 7-12
12: 270-290/ 8-13
18: 270-290/10-15
Weather'|Variable cloudiness to possible partly cloudy or fair at times
Seas 2-4 ft from W

Mon, June 20 between Bjornoya and southern Spitsbergen
00: 260-280/ 12-17
06: 260-280/ 14-20
12: 250-270/ 16-22
18: 250-270/ 15-22
Weather'|Variable cloudiness
Seas 3-5 ft, from W-SW

Tue, June 21 between Bjornoya and southern Spitsbergen
00: 260-280/ 14-20
06: 260-280/ 10-15
12: 250-270/ 10-15
18: 230-260/ 7-13
Weather'|Variable cloudiness
Seas 2-4 ft from W-SW

Outlook for Wed June 22
SW to S to SE winds around 10 kts or less

Best regards,
Chris Wasserback

Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

 

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