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Leg 0 - 2016, Forecast

To: John Neal and crew of  "Mahina Tiare"
From: Commanders’ Weather Corp, tel: 603-882-6789,
Route: Ellos, Sweden to Mandal, Norway to Orkney, Scotland
Depart: 1000utc Mon, May 2, 2016
Prepared: 1900utc Sun, May 1, 2016

Summary: Weather pattern looks to co-operate for the most part for both legs but there will be
temporary rough spots on both legs.

1) High pressure located to your S in Denmark will track eastward tonight
2) Meanwhile a large storm system SE of Iceland will be lifting northward and weakening next 24-48 hours.
3) Its associated frontal boundary extending to the S will be tracking eastward passing thru the UK
tonight and into the North Sea Monday PM.
4) This will lead to an increasing southerly breeze along the route to Mandal Monday afternoon
5) Breeze may temporarily diminish Monday evening but then will pick up again overnight to 18-25 kts
with some gusts to 30 from the S
6) Expect the front to continue to weaken as it moves thru Mandal around 6 utc .
a) Winds will clock to SW just ahead of the front and then more WSW-W after frontal
b) You may want to set up for that wind shift S of rhumb end of trip.
7) Will be some showers perhaps briefly squally overnight Monday night when the stronger winds move thru.
8) Then staying a day in Mandal and departing 12 utc Wed the pattern looks manageable to get to
9) On Wed new high pressure will track to northern France and there will be a big low near 57n/ 23w well NW of Ireland.
10) The low will track to the E of Iceland and weaken.
11) Associated frontal boundary to the S will be approaching the western UK around 12 utc Thu then
may dissipate before reaching Orkney
12) Departing 12 utc Wed expect increasing SW –SSW breeze as you head W from Mandal.
a) Wind speeds leaving 10-15 kts will build to as high as 22-30 kts for a time Thu AM.
b) Seas may get to 5-8 ft wind wave and swell by Thu.
13) But as you get further W both the European and GFS models show diminishing breeze Thu night into Friday as the low and front weaken
a) Wind speeds diminish to 10-15 kts approaching Orkney early Fri
b) Direction trends into the SW-WSW
c) You may want to set up S of Rhumb line again for that clocking breeze approaching Mandal
14) Pattern beyond Friday is not certain as models diverge but could get rougher late in the weekend
as next low tracks up into the UK from the S creating perhaps strong E-NE winds by next Sun/Mon
along your route.
15) Keep us advised and do suggest an update to the route to Orkney before departing
a) Let us know and will wait for your request.

Routing... Direct to Mandal – may want to set up a little S of rhumb line at the end for the SW-W breeze approaching Mandal

Route to Orkney looks to be a similar strategy leaving 12 utc Wed.

Some estimated positions below

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Mon, May 2
06: 150-180/ 6-12
09: 180-200/ 10-14
12: 170-190/ 14-18,
15: 160-180/ 15-20
18: 090-110/ 10-15
21: 180-200/ 15-22
Weather...Mostly cloudy with showers developing at night
Seas 5-7 ft SSW swell with wind waves increase to 2-4 ft

Tues. May 3
00: 170-190/ 18-25 g 30+
03: 200-220/ 15-22
06: 240-260/ 15-10 – weakening front moves thru
09 230-250/ 10-15 – arrive Mandal
12: 250-270/ 13-17- Mandal
18: 250-270/ 13-17 - Mandal
Weather...Showers around until front moves thru around 6 utc then cloudy to partly cloudy
Winds may gust to 30+ kts in any squally showers Monday night.
Seas 3-6 ft

Wed, May 4
00: 260-280/ 8-12
06: 250-270/ 5-8
12: 220-240/10-15 Depart for Orkney
18: 190-210/13-17
Weather... Variable cloudiness
Seas 2-4 ft

Thu, May 5
00: 180-200/18-25
06: 190-210/18-25 g 30
12: 200-220/22-30 nr 58 40n/ 02 20e
18: 190-210/15-22
Weather...Variable cloudiness
Seas increase to 5-8 ft then diminish

Fri, May 6
00: 220-240/10-15
06: 240-260/10-15 nr Orkney
12: 260-280/ 5-10
18: 240-260/ 5-10
Weather... Partly to mostly cloudy
Seas 3-6 ft

Best regards,
Tom Mattus


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