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Leg 5 - 2015, Weather Forecast

From: "Commanders' Weather" <info@commandersweather.com>
Subject: weather Tue 6/30
Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2015 11:20:26 -0400

To: John Neal and crew of SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp
Route: BVI to Flores, Arozes
Departure: approx. 1200utc Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Prepared: 1515utc Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Summary: E trades prevail until late in the weekend then a period of NE
headwinds possible for early next week followed by more favorable but
fairly light S-SW winds!

1) High pressure ridge (1029 mb) currently oriented on a WSW to ENE axis
from 33n/56w to 37n/40w
2) With a cold front from just W of Ireland to 32n/24w then becoming a
trough and trailing WSW to near 28n/50w
3) With moderate to strong E to ESE trades, 15-25 kts, across the Greater
Antilles
4) By 12utc Fri, the high (1029 mb) may have changed little in strength and
centered near 34n/47w
a) with a trough on the SW side of the high from 29n/54w ESE to 25n/42w
5) Moderate to strong E trades, 15-25 kts, to continue for Wed and may last
into Thu
a) with E to ESE seas of 6-8 ft
6) Latest satellite loops show scattered shower activity from near the
Leeward Is and extending E thru the central tropical Atlantic and generally
moving to the W and WNW
a) brief wind gust to 30 kts possible near any squall
7) Feel that E to ESE trades may be gradually decreasing Fri '" Sat getting
farther to the N and closer to the high
8) But will need to watch for the trough to move to the WNW during the
weekend and early next week
a) may affect your route late Sun and Mon
9) Think winds may become NE to N ahead of the trough late Sun and Mon,
speeds may be into the low to mid teens
a) with increasing chances for scattered showers, maybe an isolated
squall or two
10) GFS model shows the trough shifting farther to the NW Tue and may weaken
a) with a weak ridge near 30-32n with winds becoming light S-SW later
Tue and Wed
b) could see a period of light/variable winds at less than 10 kts
11) However, other models do not have this trough moving WNW thru the
central Atlantic
a) in this case, winds may be E-SE Sun and Mon but light at 10 kts or
less
b) then clocking to the S-SW Tue '" Wed and perhaps freshening into the
teens
12) Went along with the idea of the GFS model with a trough passing by
during Mon but confidence is below average
13) The tropical Atlantic is fairly quiet and may remain quiet for the next
several days
14) Please send us your daily position reports and let us know when you
would like another forecast

Routing:

1) Suggest heading NNE towards 28n/60w with E trades prevailing
2) Then more E to ENE towards 29n/58w as winds become NE-N late Sun and Mon
and turning more NE towards 30 30n/56w with light E to SE winds after weak
trough passes
3) Can head ENE towards Flores middle of next week with light S-SW breeze
4) Some estimated positions below

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Wed, July 1
00: 090-110/18-25
06: 080-100/17-24
12: 080-100/18-25 approx depart
18: 080-100/17-24
Weather'¦Partly cloudy with a few scattered squally showers possible, brief
wind gust to 30 kts possible near any squall
Seas 6-8 ft E to ESE swell

Thu, July 2
00: 080-100/17-24
06: 080-100/16-23
12: 080-100/15-22 nr 21n/63 40w
18: 090-110/14-20
Weather'¦Partly cloudy with a few scattered squally showers possible, brief
wind gust to 30 kts possible near any heavier shower
Seas 6-8 ft, E to ESE swell

Fri, July 3
00: 100-080/13-18
06: 070-090/14-20
12: 080-100/13-18 nr 23 20n/62 20w
18: 090-110/12-17
Weather'¦Partly cloudy, perhaps a couple of widely scattered showers around
Seas decreasing to 4-6 ft, E to ESE swell

Sat, July 4
00: 080-100/10-15
06: 080-100/11-16
12: 100-120/12-17 nr 25 50n/61 05w
18: 110-130/ 8-13
Weather'¦Partly cloudy, maybe an isolated shower or two mainly early
Seas diminishing to 3-5 ft, ESE swell

Sun, July 5
00: 120-100/ 9-14
06: 090-070/ 8-13
12: 080-060/ 7-12 nr 28n/60w
18: 070-050/ 6-10 heading more E?
Weather'¦Partly to variably cloudy, chance for a shower late?
Seas diminishing to 2-4 ft, ESE swell

Mon, July 6  '" heading more E to ENE, weak trough passing '" confidence below
average
00: 060-040/ 9-14
06: 050-030/11-16
12: 040-020/10-15 nr 29n/58w
18: 040-070/ 6-10
Weather'¦Variably to mostly cloudy with increasing chances for scattered
showers, maybe a couple of isolated squalls, brief wind gust to 25-30 kts
possible near any squall
ESE and some NE seas 2-4 ft

Tue, July 7 '" heading more NE
00: bcmg 110-140/ 6-10
12: 160-190/ 3-7 nr 30 30n/56 10w
Weather'¦Variably to partly cloudy, decreasing chances for scattered showers
E-NE seas 2-4 ft with some WNW swell possible late

Wed, July 8 '" now heading ENE towards Flores
00: variable/ < 6 close to ridge axis?
12: 190-210/ 6-10 nr 31 40n/54w
Weather'¦Partly cloudy to fair
Seas build to 3-5 ft long period WNW swell

Best regards,
Dave Pietras

--

Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
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