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Leg 1 - 2015, Forecast

From: "Commanders' Weather" <>
Subject: Weather Forecast 3/20/15
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2015 09:13:19 -0400

To: John Neal and crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare III'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Neah Bay, WA to San Diego, CA
Departure: early next week '" Tue, March 24??
Prepared: 0615pdt Fri, March 20, 2015

Summary: It looks like a tough pattern over the next several days for
getting south with a series of frontal systems pushing into the NW U.S.
coast with a lot of southerlies and only very small windows with more
favorable wind directions. Looks like Tue of next week may be the earliest
reasonable time to depart.

1) The current weather map shows high pressure across the western U.S.
stretching off the California coast southwestward to another high center
around 29n/132w.
2) Low pressure is in the SE Gulf of Alaska near 53n/141w with a front
stretching SE, S and SW with the tail end near 29n/140w.
3) The front will push toward the NW U.S. coast today with increasing SSE
to S winds ahead of it.
a) Speeds will reach near 30 knots on average gusting to 40 knots along
and off the WA and OR
coasts, so best to stop in Neah Bay and hold up.
4) The front will move ashore and inland tonight while weakening with high
pressure generally staying to the south near northern CA.
a) Winds will diminish to the teens and veer into the SW to W behind the
front later tonight.
5) Conditions would be okay leaving Sat AM with favorable W winds, but this
favorable period will be very short lived as Another low will track NE
across the western Gulf of Alaska with a potent occluded frontal system
racing east across the NE Pacific Sat into early Sunday.
a) By Sat evening winds will be freshening from the SE and will veer
into the SSE to S early Sun with
speeds increasing into the 20s and 30s ahead of the front along the
WA and OR coasts.
6) This front will move onshore Sun night with winds veering a little into
the S to SSW and diminishing.
7) Yet another front will come racing eastward toward the NW coast Mon with
winds increasing out of the SE to SSE along the WA coast.
a) This front will be a little different with winds not quite as
strong along the WA coast with stronger
winds (gale force) along the OR and northern CA coasts Mon.
b) But still could see speeds into the 18-25 knot range along the WA
coast which would make for
unpleasant conditions.
8) Finally it looks like the next storm system and associated front will
set up further west and not affect the weather along the west coast of the
U.S. for Tue-Wed of next week with a ridge of high pressure holding along
the coast instead.
a) It looks like light conditions with motoring Tue-Wed along much of
the WA and OR coasts but at
least it does not look like strong head winds at this point.
9) It is possible that there may be just enough time for a window to get to
Astoria before Tue, like if you were to leave later this evening and get
into Astoria Sat evening or maybe from later Sun into early Mon, but these
would be very tight windows at best and am more confident in them not
working out for the best as is usual in these types of circumstances.
a) Feel much more confident of a reasonable window leaving early Tue at
this point.
10) Seas will have a fair amount of long period SW swell the next few days
along with shorter and steeper episodes S seas during the periods of strong
S winds, then seas will settle down toward Tue with a longer period W swell
setting in.
11) General weather will be unsettled the next few days with periods of
rain and showers each day due to the frequent frontal systems approaching
and moving in with some brief periods of quiet weather in between and
expect the usual abundance of fog as well.
12) Please let us know if you will hold up in Neah Bay for a better looking
window to get south toward next Tue.

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is PDT

Fri, March 20 '" offshore Neah Bay
11: 140-160/22-30 g35
17: 160-180/25-35 g40
23: 210-250/20-10
Weather'¦Cloudy with periods of rain and showers and areas of dense fog
Seas 8-12 ft, SW swell and wind wave chop

Sat, March 21 '" offshore Neah Bay
05: 260-280/13-19
11: 250-270/ 7-13
17: 160-180/ < 7
23: 120-140/10-16
Weather'¦Chance of an early shower, otherwise cloudy to partly cloudy, then
increasing clouds again at night
Seas diminishing to 7-9 ft, longer period SW to WSW swell

Sun, March 22 '" offshore Neah Bay '" winds more SSE to S further S down the
WA/OR coast
05: 110-130/15-22
11: 120-140/18-25 g30
17: 140-170/22-32 g37
23: 170-200/20-10
Weather'¦Mostly cloudy with periods of rain and showers. Areas of fog.
Seas building to 8-10 ft, SW to S swell and increasing wind waves

Mon, March 23 '" offshore Neah Bay '" stronger S winds further S
05: 130-150/ 8-14
11: 140-160/11-17
17: 160-190/18-25 g30
23: 140-160/ 7-15
Weather'¦Mostly cloudy with more periods of rain and showers with areas of
Seas building to 10-12 ft, larger SW swell with increasing chop

Tue, March 24 '" offshore Neah Bay '" may be okay to depart?
05: 130-160/10-15
17: 270-290/ 5-10
Weather'¦Chance of AM showers, then cloudy to partly cloudy
Seas 8-10 ft, long period W swell

Best regards,
Oliver Lucia


Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

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