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Leg 2 - 2014, Forecast

To: John Neal and the crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Auckland, NZ to Rurutu
Position: 25s/164w at 1800utc Mon, May 19, 2014
Prepared: 2000utc Mon, May 19, 2014

Summary:

1) the forecast models, as you have seen, are changing daily in your region
a) the latest update today shows the intensifying low near 26S/175W
moving SSE from Tonga
b) with an extra bit of energy (weak low) pushed out well E of the main
low, near 27S/155W
c) you are sitting in between these lows and should stay in mainly
favorable wind directions
d) but expecting some seas up to 8-10ft and very choppy and confused with
a low to your E and one to your W during the next few days
2) by 00utc on the 21st, the easternmost low is expected to weaken as it
moves just E of the Austral Islands
a) however, the deepening W low should be near 28S/175W, keeping you in
some gusty N-NNE winds
b) by 18utc on the 22nd, the low should have moved SE to be near 36S/163W
c) finally, backing your winds out of the NW for a better sailing angle
toward Rurutu
3) expecting you will see a quick cold frontal passage between 18utc on the
23rd and 18utc on the 24th
a) either in the form of NW to W to SW to S winds or a NW winds becoming
light then starting to build out of the S on the 24th
b) weak high pressure is forecast to slide E from Brisbane during the
22nd to fill in behind this frontal boundary during the 24th along your
route
c) with some possible light SE winds on the E side of this high for your
approach to Rurutu
4) hope that the forecast models don't change their minds again
a) they are having a very difficult time with this low and the SPCZ this
year

Routing:

1) have routed you averaging 150 nm/day for your first day then down to
about 120 nm/day toward the E and then ENE
a) kept you slow to remain in the more favorable wind directions and speed

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Tue, May 20
00: 330-350/15-23
06: 340-360/16-24
12: 350-010/12-20
18: 010-030/10-15 nr 25S/161 30W
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas 6-8ft, SE swell

Wed, May 21
00: 010-030/10-18
06: 360-020/12-20
12: 360-020/15-23
18: 350-010/20-28 nr 25S/159 10W
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas 6-8ft, SE swell

Thu, May 22
00: 340-360/20-28
06: 330-350/18-24
12: 330-350/20-25
18: 320-340/20-28 nr 25S/156 50W '" head on ENE course toward Rurutu
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas building to 8-10ft, SE swell

Fri, May 23
00: 320-340/20-25
06: 320-340/18-24
12: 320-340/15-22
18: 320-340/10-16 nr 24S/154 40W
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas 8-10ft, SE swell

Sat, May 24
00: 260-280/10-18 cold front moving in from W
06: 220-240/10-16
12: 200-220/10-15
18: bcmg 170-190/10-15 nr 23 10S/152 30W '" high pressure area moving in
from W
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas down to 5-7ft, SE swell

Sun, May 25
00: 150-170/10-15
06: 140-160/10-14
12: 130-150/8-13 nr Rurutu
Weather'|Variably cloudy, with scattered showers and squalls
Seas down to 4-6, SE swell

Best regards,
Brynn Campbell

leg 1 | leg 2 | leg 3 | leg 4 | leg 5 | leg 6 | leg 7


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