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Leg 1 - 2014, Forecast

To: John Neal and the crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Auckland, NZ to Rurutu
Depart: 2200utc Thu, May 8, 2014
Prepared: 1700utc Thu, May 8, 2014

Summary:

1) beginning of this leg will be a little messy at the start but it should set up into a good weather pattern to allow you to get in a lot of easting before heading directly to the Austral Islands

2) right now, low pressure is centered well SW of Opua, near 38S/166E

a) as part of a complex low and frontal boundary that stretches from just W of the Cook Strait to near the Chatham Islands then off to the SE
b) forecast models generally agree on this low in the Tasman Sea pushing NE to just W of Auckland around your departure time
c) then sliding E-ENE across North Island during the 9th, utc time
d) to give you WNW to NW winds during your first day

3) this low is then expected to merge with a weak low that is currently near New Caledonia and sliding SE

a) with this new low near 35S/175W by 12utc on the 10th and some lighter
and shifty winds for your route for about 36-48hours as the lows merge
b) during the 10th and 11th, utc time, this low will begin to quickly
move off to the E
c) allowing weak high pressure to fill in to your route, as high pressure
centered near Lord Howe Island in the N Tasman Sea is pushed E by the next
front moving into the S Tasman Sea
d) expect you will get into some light winds during the 11th and 12th as
the E edge of the high moves over you

4) the main reason to keep you around 35S is the expected S-SW winds which are forecast to move into your route during the 13th and remain with you to at least the 15th, utc time

a) these are being generated by complex area of low pressure (between 50-60S/170 140W) that is expected to move slowly to the E during this time
b) you should be on the N edge of the SW winds to get a good boost to the E without as much of the high seas that these persistent winds can generate
c) we will have to watch your progress into the 15th and 16th so you do not get too far E and move into the possible 8-12ft seas

Routing:

1) routed you averaging 150 nm/day in mainly sailing but some motorsailing conditions

a) suggest an E course to get you into favorable S-SW winds for the second half of this first week
b) have also routed you up to about 35S to put you a little further N and in some possibly lighter winds and seas in the SW winds by the middle of next week
c) recommend you sail the most comfortable course once into the SW winds and seas
d) we can check by the beginning of next week if you should slow down a bit to remain W of the highest winds and seas

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Thu, May 8
18: 320-340/10-18
22: 290-310/15-22 departure from Auckland '" heading on E course
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, chance of passing showers/squalls
Seas up to 5-7ft, some NW swell

Fri, May 9
00: 290-310/15-22
06: 300-320/14-18
12: 320-340/10-18
18: 320-340/6-12
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, chance of passing showers/squalls
Seas 5-7ft, some NW swell

Sat, May 10
00: 140-160/4-6 to light/variable nr 36 10S /177E
06: light/variable
12: 150-170/6-10
18: 160-180/8-12
Weather'¦Variably to mostly cloudy, with showers/squalls, maybe an isolated
thunderstorm. Possible gusts to 30kts in any strong squalls/thunderstorms.
Seas down to 3-5ft with some S-SE swell

Sun, May 11
00: 170-190/10-15 nr 36S/180W
06: 170-190/8-14
12: 160-180/8-14
18: 160-180/5-10
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, some showers/squalls
Seas 3-5ft with some S swell

Mon, May 12
00: 150-170/5-10 nr 36S/177W
06: light/variable
12: light/variable
18: light/variable to 250-270/5-10
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, some showers/squalls
Seas 3-5ft with some S swell

Tue, May 13
00: 230-250/8-15 nr 35 40S /174 10W
12: 220-240/12-18
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, some showers/squalls
Seas up to 4-6ft, S swell

Wed, May 14
00: 200-220/15-20 nr 35 10S/171 10W
12: 190-210/14-20
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, some showers/squalls
Seas building to 6-8ft, S swell

Thu, May 15
00: 190-210/15-23 nr 35S/168 20W
12: 200-220/16-22
Weather'¦Variably cloudy, some showers/squalls
Seas possibly up to 7-9ft, S-SW swell

Best regards,
Brynn Campbell

leg 1 | leg 2 | leg 3 | leg 4 | leg 5 | leg 6 | leg 7


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