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Mahina Expeditions, Offshore Cruising Training

Leg 3 Weather Forecast

Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2013 15:13:45 -0400
To: John Neal and crew of SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Niue to Apia, Samoa
Depart: 2100utc Thur, July 18, 2013
Prepared: 1730utc Thur, July 18, 2013

Summary:

1) latest forecast models generally agree on the blustery SE-ESE trade winds along your route being replaced by a region of lower pressure that possibly extends from just S of Samoa to S of Tonga around the 20th

a) the blustery trades are being controlled by strong high pressure centered near Cape Reinga, NZ
b) with a weak low pressure area near Samoa generating some squalls and thunderstorms around the Samoa region right now
c) forecast models keep the blustery trade winds along your route until early on the 21st when you near Samoa and the area of low pressure that is organizing further, with upper level support from a stronger low that moves up from the SW

2) satellite shows an extensive area of clouds with some squalls and thunderstorms around Samoa right now

a) and more energy sliding SE from near Fiji toward S Tonga
b) which will help to build a low from Tonga to Samoa as you approach on the 21st

3) however, you may find that the strength of the trade winds and the seas they generate will be harder to handle than the low that should form around Samoa by this weekend

a) the winds right now at the Niue and Pago Pago airports are sustained at 15-20kts with some higher gusts
b) expect these winds (along with the seas) to build as you head to Apia, becoming more choppy and confused
c)until you near Apia at about the time low pressure is forecast to organize nearby
d) the shifting of wind directions and actual easing of winds as the low develops should give you a welcome break from the trade winds and seas
e) expect some gusty winds and heavy rains from the low near Apia but these conditions should be more sporadic than the persistent trade winds and seas

Routing:

1) routed you averaging about 150 nm/day in following winds and seas but they will be high and rough

a) you may want to head a little E of rhumbline to help set up for probable NNE to N winds as you approach Apia

Wind forecasts
Wind directions true, wind speed in kts and time is UTC

Thu, July 18
21: 140-160/18-25 approx departure from Niue Weather' Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered squalls and a few thunderstorms Seas up to 8-10ft, in SE windwave and swell

Fri, July 19
00: 130-150/20-28
06: 120-140/20-30
12: 120-140/20-30 nr 29S/170 30W
18: 110-130/20-28
Weather' Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered squalls and a few thunderstorms Seas building to 10-12ft, choppy and confused in SE windwave and swell

Sat, July 20
00: 110-130/22-30
06: 100-120/20-30
12: 100-120/20-28 nr 29S/167 30W
18: 090-110/20-25
Weather Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered squalls and a few thunderstorms Seas building to 11-13ft, choppy and confused in SE-E windwave and swell

Sun, July 21
00: 070-090/20-25
06: 020-040/20-25 nr Apia
12: 350-010/14-20
18: 330-350/15-22
Weather Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered squalls and a few thunderstorms Seas easing to 6-8ft, in quickly backing winds and lighter wind speeds

Best regards,
Brynn Campbell

leg 1 | leg 2 | leg 3 | leg 4 | leg 5 | leg 6 | leg 7


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