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Leg 7 - 2013, Update 1: Weather

To: John Neal and crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Noumea, New Caledonia to Auckland, New Zealand, possibly via Norfolk Island
Departure: 00utc Fri, October 11, 2013
Prepared: 1600utc Thu, October 10, 2013

John, very stormy period for this trip. Think it is best to stop in Norfolk then continue toward NZ around 00utc on the 16th, if the conditions have calmed down.

Recommend we update your forecast by 18utc on the 15th, if that is good with you.

Summary:

1) currently, a strong cold front associated with low pressure centered near the Chatham Islands has just pushed E of Tonga

a) weak high pressure (1017MB) behind this front is currently centered between New Caledonia and Norfolk Island
b) and is forecast to slide to the E over the next few days, to be centered just SW of Nuku'alofa,Tonga around 18utc on the 11th
d) which will back your light winds from the NE to the SW during your first 24 hours, as you move through the high

2) weather pattern in the South Pacific right now is very fast moving with a series of cold fronts sliding from W to E and affecting your route this week and next week

a) by 12utc on the 11th, the next cold front is forecast to push E across North Island, NZ
b) bringing blustery SW winds to North Island and Auckland during the 11th and 12th, utc time, as you move across the high pressure
c) this second cold front is not forecast to cross your route but the N tip of the front should extend up near 27S/170e by 00utc on the 12th
d) which should help to slow the E progress of this high pressure behind this front and keep you in SW to SE to E winds during the 12th, as the high moves to near 30S/170E by 00utc on the 13th
e) during the 13th, forecast model consensus shows this high sliding E
f) to back your winds through the NE to the N, as they build, approaching Norfolk Island

3) on the 13th, utc time, the next cold front is forecast to slide NE across the Tasman Sea

a) to extend from the S tip of South Island, NZ to near Brisbane by 18utc on the 13th
b) during the 14th and 15th, this cold front will continue sliding NE toward Norfolk and North Island, probably crossing Norfolk by 00utc on the 15th
c) increasing the NW winds to 25-35kts and building the seas to 8-10ft for a short time
d) latest forecast model consensus shows the blustery W to SW winds behind the cold front reaching Auckland by 00utc on the 15th

4) latest forecast models show the high pressure behind this last cold front moving between Norfolk and Cape Reinga by 06utc on the 16th

a) to give you a small window to NZ, probably beginning around 00utc on the 16th, before the next cold front moves close to your route around 00utc on the 19th

Routing:

1) routed you on a rhumbline, averaging 150 nm/day, to reach Norfolk Island before the strong cold front does

a) tried routing on a direct route to Auckland but expect you will be about 250 nm NW of Cape Reinga when the blustery W-SW winds and seas up to 10-14ft reach you
b) latest forecast shows you should be in the lee of NZ by 00utc on the 19th, before the next strong cold front reaches North Island '" with departure from Norfolk around 00utc on the 16th

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts and time is UTC

Fri, October 11
00: 070-100/6-12 departure from Noumea
06: 040-060/5-10
12: bcmg 270-300/5-10
19: 250-270/6-13
Weather|Variably to partly cloudy
Seas 3-5ft, some light W-SW swell

Sat, October 12
00: 200-230/7-15 nr 25S/167E
06: 150-170/8-16
12: 130-150/10-15
18: 100-130/10-15
Weather'|Variably to partly cloudy
Seas building to 4-6ft, SW swell

Sun, October 13
00: 070-090/10-18 nr 27 30S/167 20E
06: 050-070/12-18
12: 020-040/15-20
18: 350-010/15-22 nr Norfolk Island
Weather'|Increasing clouds with some scattered showers/squalls
Seas building to 5-7ft, light NE swell

Mon, October 14 '" offshore Norfolk
00: 350-010/16-22
06: 330-350/18-25
12: 320-340/20-28
18: 260-280/20-28
Weather'|Cloudy with showers and squalls, possible gusts to 35kts
Seas building to 6-8ft, choppy and confused, in quickly shifting wind directions with the front

Tue, October 15 '" offshore Norfolk
00: 220-240/25-35
06: 170-190/18-25
12: 150-170/15-20
18: 130-150/10-15
Weather'|Mostly cloudy with diminishing chance of showers and squalls
Seas building to 8-10ft for a time, then easing to 6-8ft in lighter SE winds

Best regards,
Brynn Campbell

--
*
*Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week


From: "Commanders' Weather" <info@commandersweather.com>
Subject: Weather update Oct 13, 2013
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 11:03:11 -0400

To: John Neal and crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'
From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route: Noumea, New Caledonia to Auckland, New Zealand, possibly
via Norfolk Island
Reaching Norfolk Island 2000UTC Sun, Oct 13
Prepared: 1330UTC Sunday, October 13, 2013

Summary:

1) John, this will be a fairly full on cold front for October heading NE across the taz Sea

a) if you have guests and they haven't done much sailing, this front will probably be too much for them
b) if just you and Amanda, then you have done this before and if we get some westing in, we will have a good angle for the SW-S winds following the cold front
c) if we wait out the cold front, we will have to wait until at least Wed afternoon in Norfolk Island '" that is when the SE winds diminish enough for us to head S
d) right now, the next cold front looks weak and not a weather problem at all, but that is a 7-8 day forecast for the Tasman Sea and I am never that comfortable for a 7-8 day forecast in the Taz, during October
e) 2 options, depart Norfolk asap and set up west of RL or wait until at least Wed afternoon. This forecast is for you guys to depart Norfolk Island at 00UTC Mon, so you can see how rough this front will be

2) Right now, the high pressure cell is near 30-31S/175-179E and moving E

a) cold front is just passing Sydney and is charging NE

3) N winds will continue to back, so I have you sailing due S from Norfolk Island, departing at 00UTC

Mon

a) the N winds will become NNW by 00UTC Mon and NW by 12UTC Mon '" so we head S on starboard gybe

4) Squalls/cold front looks to arrive late Mon night/Tue morning

a) we take the header behind the cold front and aim directly for Cape Reinga on starboard
b) this is a fairly strong cold front, so there will be much cloudiness and a few scattered, brief, squally showers after the cold front passes '" this activity will last 12-18 hours

5) Conditions will calm down on Wed

a) high pressure will be near 31S/162-166E mid-day Wed and this high will move slowly ESE '" this high will pass S and SE of Norfolk Island Wed night/Thu morning

6) Looks like light westerlies along the east coast of North Island Thu which become NE-E sea breezes in all, but the Waitemata Harbor

7) If you depart Wed afternoon or Wed night from Norfolk Island

a) looks light SE-E winds Wed PM/Wed night
b) winds will become NW Thu/Fri and look to remain light, as the cold front stalls over the central Tasman Sea, but this becomes the least certain part of the forecast

Wind forecasts

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts and time is UTC

Sun, October 13
18: 360-340/17-24

Mon, October 14
00: 330-350/20-25, gusts 30, departing Norfolk Island
06: 330-310/20-30
12: 320-300/22-32
15: 310-330/25-35, gusts/squalls 40-50
18: 280-240/16-22, gusts 25-35
21: 200-220/20-25, brief squally showers 30-35

Weather'|becoming cloudy with squally showers/thunderstorms likely after midnight into Tue morning. NW-N seas increasing to 8-12 feet during Mon night

Tue, October 15


00: 190-210/20-25, squally shower gusts to 30-35, estimating you near 31 50S/169E
06: 200-220/20-25, squally shower gusts to 30-35
12: 190-210/16-22, gusts/squalls 30
18: 200-220/13-18

Weather'|Much cloudiness daytime with a scattering of fast moving, squally showers. Showers and clouds should diminish overnight. SW seas 6-9 feet, but slowly diminishing overnight

Wed, Oct 16

00: 190-210/10-15, estimating you near 33 30S/171 40E
06: 200-220/ 8-12
12: 220-250/ 8-12
18: 230-270/ 5-9
Partly cloudy to fair with diminishing SW seas

Thu, Oct 17

00: light/variable, near Opua, developing NE-E sea breeze
06: light WNW gradient wind and 070-100/ 6-12 kt sea breeze within 6-12 miles of the coast
12: 250-310/ 5-10
18: 270-310<5
Partly to mostly sunny and small seas

Fri, Oct 18

00: 250-290/ 8-12 in Waitemata Harbor and NE sea breeze in the Hauraki Gulf
06: 230-260/ 8-12 from Rangy Channel into the Harbor, but light/variable in the Gulf
Partly to mostly sunny

Best regards, Ken Campbell

--
*
*Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

 

 

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