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Weather Updates Leg 8 - 2012

From: "Commanders' Weather" <info@commandersweather.com>
Subject: Weather Forecast 11/1/12
Date: Thu, 1 Nov 2012 09:18:08 -0400

To: John Neal and the crew of SY 'Mahina Tiare'

From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789

Route: Brisbane, Australia to Opua, NZ

Depart: 0000utc Fri, November 2, 2012

Prepared: 1320utc Thu, November 1, 2012

Summary:

1) The current weather map shows a strong cold front pushing NE and E across the Tasman Sea.

2) A ridge of high pressure stretches from near northern New Zealand toward the far NE coast of Australia.

3) Another high is located to the south of Australia and is ridging E and NE following the cold front.

4) Strong NW winds are occurring offshore of Brisbane today ahead of the approaching cold front.

a) Speeds will be averaging close to 30 knots so quite rough!

5) The front will move off the coast by the time you depart with increasing S to SE winds following it.

a) Speeds will be near 20 knots on average as you head out and will increase a bit more to around 20-30 knots as you get offshore.

6) Fortunately the real strong winds look to be short lived with speeds coming down to a more comfortable 20 knots on average by early Sat.

a) Wind direction should be SE during this time.

7) High pressure will build into the Tasman Sea this weekend with the center of the high across southern parts of the Sea and then shifting north some by late weekend.

a) Winds will back into the ESE to E as this occurs and slowly diminish some more.

8) The high pressure ridge will shift very slowly eastward toward northern New Zealand into early next week with one ridge axis stretching east of there and another one to the W and NW toward the NE Australian coast.

a) So getting south of the ridge axis (see routing below) expect winds to back through the NE and N and into the NW early to mid next week.

b) Winds speeds will be mainly in the teens but you will be close to the ridge axis so could be lighter at times.

9) A cold front may approach from the SW and W later next week with winds backing into the NW to W and increasing ahead of it.

a) But of course low confidence this far out.

10) Seas will build to 8-12 feet heading out with the strong SE winds, then will diminish over the weekend and will be down to slight levels for early to mid next week before possibly building again late week.

11) General weather will be fairly quiet with the front to the east of your route by the time you leave with maybe just a few leftover showers early, then several days of fair and settled weather with high pressure in
control.

12) Please confirm when you leave and let us know when you would like the next forecast.

Routing's

1) Have you heading NE or ENE out of Brisbane for the first 36 hours or so in the strong SE trades.

2) Then as trades back into the ESE to E it looks best to get south heading toward the high and getting south of the ridge axis by midweek next week for much more favorable wind angles out of the NE.

a) Further north winds will be more E or ESE.

3) Then have you basically south of rhumb line through late week with increasing NW to W winds ahead of the next approaching cold front.

a) We can always adjust routing further out, if necessary, as we get more certain of the weather.

4) Some estimated positions listed below.

Wind forecasts

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts and time is UTC

Fri, November 2

00: 120-140/18-25 approx departure

06: 120-140/20-30

12: 120-140/18-25

18: 120-140/16-24

Weather's Chance of early showers, then partly cloudy Seas building to 8-12 ft, increasing S swell and wind wave chop

Sat, November 3

00: 120-140/15-22 near 26 40s/155 50e

06: 120-140/15-22

12: 100-120/15-23 near 26 15s/157 10e '" start heading S

18: 090-110/14-20

Weather's Partly cloudy Seas decreasing to 7-9 ft, S swell and wind wave chop

Sun, November 4

00: 090-110/13-19 near 27s/157 10e

06: 090-110/13-18

12: 090-110/14-20

18: 070-090/12-18

Weather's Partly cloudy to fair Seas diminishing to 5-7 ft, longer period S to SE swell

Mon, November 5

00: 060-080/13-19 near 24 30s/157 40e

12: 040-060/11-17

Weather's Fair Seas decreasing to 3-5 ft, SE swell

Tue, November 6

00: 010-030/ 6-12 near 31 20s/159 35e

12: 340-360/10-15

Weather's Fair Seas 3-5 ft, SE swell

Wed, November 7

00: 320-340/12-17 near 32 45s/161 45e

12: 300-320/13-19

Weather's Fair to partly cloudy Seas building to 4-6 ft, swell becoming NW

Thu, November 8

00: 290-310/16-24 near 33 35s/164 30e

12: 270-290/18-25

Weather's Partly to variably cloudy with an increasing chance of showers and squalls Seas building to 6-8 ft, increasing NW to W swell and wind wave chop

Best regards,

Oliver Lucia

--
*
*Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

 

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