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From: "Commanders' Weather" <info@commandersweather.com>
Subject: Noumea, New Caledonia to Brisbane, Australia forecast
Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2011 13:01:43 -0400

To: John Neal and crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare'

From: Commanders' Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789

Route: Noumea, New Caledonia to Brisbane, Australia

Departure: 06utc Tue, October 4, 2011

Prepared: 1500utc Mon, Oct 3, 2011

John, let us know how you are doing enroute and we can keep you apprised of
any major changes in the forecast.

Summary:

1) a little change in the forecast models again today (as there is everyday)

a) think the SW winds and seas during your first day may be a little
stronger than they looked yesterday

b) but with quickly easing conditions as you move into weak high pressure
centered between New Caledonia and Brisbane for days 2 and 3

2) satellite right now shows cloud cover over Noumea with this line of cloud
stretching from SE Papua New Guinea to just E of North Island, NZ

a) to the W of this W edge of the cloud shows where the gustier SW-WSW
winds are spiraling around the low currently centered near 38S/168E

b) looks like these gusty winds are helping to build the SW seas to
probably up to 8-10ft as you move away from Noumea later on the 4th, utc
time

3) most of the forecast models now develop a stronger low pressure area
along the frontal boundary as it moves near the Kermandecs during the 5th

a) with this second low sliding toward the Chatham Islands during the 6th

b) and finally pulling both lows off to the SE by later on the 6th and
into the 7th, utc time

4) building N to NW winds during the 7th and 8th, utc time, are associated
with the next low pressure area/frontal boundary that is forecast to
organize near Sydney around 06utc on the 7th, then extend E toward the
central Tasman Sea during the 8th

a) expect you will see a quick NW to W to SW wind shift between 12utc on
the 8th and 00utc on the 9th, in the latest timing on the forecast models

b) you should not see that much of a push from the SW, as a small, weak
high is forecast to fill in behind the low/frontal boundary

5) a change in the longer range forecast is the speed of the next
low/frontal boundary moving across SE Australia during the 10th

a) with most major forecast models agreeing on this latest frontal
boundary nudging the gustier NW winds over Brisbane around 00utc on the
10th, as we are expecting you to arrive

Routing:

1) routed you mainly on a rhumbline toward Brisbane averaging 150 nm/day

a) but you may have to shift a little to the W or S to find a better
sailing angle at times in the shifty and gusty winds

2) think it's good you can leave early to reach Brisbane before the second
(and stronger) cold front reaches your route

a) hopefully, you can make good progress in the lighter conditions which
should have very little seas to bother you

Wind forecasts

Wind directions are true, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Mon, October 3 '" offshore Noumea

18: 240-260/10-18

Weather'¦Mostly cloudy with scattered showers/squalls

Seas 6-8ft, in SW swell and windwave

Tue, October 4

00: 230-250/14-20

06: 230-250/12-20 approx departure from Noumea

12: 220-240/12-18

18: 210-230/10-16

Weather'¦Becoming variably cloudy with isolated showers/squalls

Seas 6-8ft, building to 8-10ft during the day in SW swell and windwave

Wed, October 5

00: 200-220/10-18 nr 22 30S/164 30E

06: 180-200/8-14

12: 170-190/6-12

18: 150-170/5-10 to light/variable

Weather'¦Variably to partly cloudy

Seas easing to 5-7ft during the day, with some leftover SW-S swell

Thu, October 6

00: light/variable nr 23 30S/162 20E

06: light/variable

12: light/variable

18: bcmg 360-020/4-8

Weather'¦Variably to partly cloudy

Seas easing to 4-6ft, some S-SE swell

Fri, October 7

00: 350-010/8-14 nr 24 30S/160E

12: 340-360/10-16

Weather'¦Variably to partly cloudy with an increased chance of
showers/squalls

Seas 4-6ft, some N-NW swell building during the day

Sat, October 8 '" winds backing and building with swift cold front pushing in
from the W

00: 340-360/15-22 nr 25 40S/157 50E

06: 330-350/18-25

12: 330-350/20-30

18: 260-290/20-30

Weather'¦Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers/squalls and maybe
some thunderstorms

Seas building to 6-8ft early then possibly up to 8-10ft in the gusty NW
winds, mainly N-NW swell

Sun, October 9 '" winds clocking then backing with NEXT cold front pushing in
from the W

00: 220-240/14-20 nr 26 30S/155 30E

06: 250-280/14-20

12: 350-010/15-20

18: 340-360/18-26

Weather'¦Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers/squalls and maybe
some thunderstorms

Seas down to 6-8ft but choppy and confused in gusty, shifty winds

Mon, October 10

00: 330-350/20-30 nr Brisbane '" in advance of next front

12: 220-240/25-35 offshore Brisbane '" behind next front

Weather'¦Variably to mostly cloudy with scattered showers/squalls and maybe
some thunderstorms

Seas building to 8-10ft, by later in the day in gusty SW winds offshore

Best regards,

Brynn Campbell

--
Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com
Website: commandersweather.com
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week

 

 

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