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From: "Commanders' Weather" <>
Subject: Forecast for SY "Mahina Tiare"
  Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:17:10 -0500

To:                   John Neal and crew on SY 'Mahina Tiare III'

From:              Commanders' Weather Corporation, tel: 603-882-6789

Route:             Lautoka, Fiji to Opua, NZ

Position:          near 25 02s 172 19e at 0930utc Tue, Nov 10, 2009

Prepared:        1530utc Tue, Nov 10, 2009

Summary: Should be fairly light headwinds oscillating between S and SW most
of the trip so work your way southward as best as you can

1) Weak high pressure will be centered to your SW much of the week.

2) 1022mb high will be over the Tasman near 32s 157e Wed am ridging NE
across your route near 27s. with SE to S winds decreasing to 8-14 kts

3) Low pressure SE of NZ will pull the tail of a front northward across you
by late Thu

a) front is also weak but

b) winds will tend to clock more SW by late Wed night and early Thu

c) then shift back S or SSW at around 10 kts, perhaps less, later Thu and
Thu night

4) As the high expands to a weak east-west ridge near 26s on Fri, light
winds will continue from a S to SW direction.

5) As you get south, winds will tend to clock to more W to NW on approach to
Opua and increase back to the low and mid teens

6) Seas will be quite light with a long period SSW swell of 4-6 ft indicated
at present, decreasing to 2-4 ft or less later in the week.

7) Satellite imagery shows quite a lot of lower level cloudiness but little
in the way of sigifiacant shower activity.

8) Longer range guidance suggests a possible tropical disturbance forming
near or just south of New Caledonia next Mon-Tue and heading SE

9) Please continue to send us your daily position reports and let us know
when you would like another forecast


1) Continue SW until winds clock more southerly, then back SE and S as wind
angle permits.

2) No significant SE winds are expected later in the period

3) Please see some estimated positions below

Wind forecasts

Wind direction is TRUE, speed in kts, time is UTC

Tue, Nov 10

18: 160-180/ 8-14

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy, slight chance for an isolated shower

Seas 5-6 ft, mostly SSW swell

Wed, Nov 11

00: 160-180/ 8-14                    near 26 10s/171e

06: 170-190/ 8-14

12: 180-200/ 6-12

18: 200-220/ 6-12

Weather: Partly cloudy

Seas 4-6 ft, mostly long period SSW swell

Thu, Nov 12

00: 220-240/ 8-14                    near 27 30s/173e

06: 230-250/ 8-14

12: bcmg 190-170/ 8-14 '" weak cold front

18: 200-220/10-16

Weather: Partly cloudy, chance of a passing shower

Seas 3-5 ft, SSW swell

Fri, Nov 13

00: 190-210/ 8-14                    near 30s 173e

06: 180-200/ 8-14

12: 180-200/ 6-12

18: 190-210/ 6-12

Weather'¦Partly cloudy.

Seas 3-4 ft, mostly SW swell

Sat, Nov 14

00: 200-220/ 4-9                      near 32 50s 173 40e

12: 220-250/10-15

Weather'¦Partly cloudy

Seas 2-4 ft, light SW swell

Sun, Nov 15

00: 270-290/12-18                   Opua

12: 290-310/14-20

Weather'¦Partly cloudy

Seas 2-4 ft offshore

Best regards,

John Leavitt

Commanders' Weather Corporation
Tel: 603-882-6789
Normal hours of operation: 5am to 5pm US eastern time, 7 days a week






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