Offshore training Weekend Seminars Consultancy
Originally From: "Commanders' Weather"

To: John Neal on SY "Mahina Tiara"
From: Commanders' Weather Corporation
Route: BVI to Azores
Departure: 1800 UTC Thu, June 29, 2006
Prepared: 1200 UTC Tue, June 27, 2006

Summary: will be more adverse conditions later Wed into Thu, as trough or tropical wave pushes westward into the area. Looks best to wait until later Thu for departure and may need to wait until Fri AM, if you don't want to contend with any squalls. But once you get away from this trough/tropical wave, the overall pattern does look good to get N-NE into the weekend into next week!!

1) Area of high pressure (1035 mb) is situated well to the NE into central Atlantic, just W or W-NW of the Azores with ridge axis extending W along 40n
2) Trough of low pressure aligned NE to SW resides SE and SE of Bermuda
a) this is keeping the trades on the lighter side thru Wed.
b) wind speeds mainly in the low to middle teens during this period
3) But there is a trough or tropical wave located to the E of the Leeward Islands along about 50n.
4) This disturbance moves east and will be into the NE Caribbean on Thu.
a) some squalls/t-storms now associated with this system, but
b) at this time, don't see any significant development over the next couple days.
5) Though, look for more clouds with showers/squalls associated with this disturbance in the NE Caribbean on Thu.
a) wind turns more E-NE or NE later Wed into Thu, and
b) will be quite squally/unstable
6) As this system pushes more to the west, look for winds to shift into the E to E-SE, but increases into the 20s later Thu into Fri
7) If leaving later Thu, look for the rougher/more adverse conditions into Fri AM, but then improves slowly later Fri into Sat, as you move NE away from the disturbance.
a) diminishing winds with less shower/squall activity to the N and NE,
b) Seas also subsiding over the region
8) will be diminishing E-SE flow, but winds should remain into the teens thru the weekend.
9) Winds do become lighter and more E-SE to SE early next week, as you get close to and around a possible ridge axis of high pressure.
10) if guidance is correct, then you maybe able to get more east by next Mon or Tue

Routingnot sure of departure time, but may need to delay until Fri AM. Either way, think you will have to head N-NE to 28 30n/60w, then possible more east with lighter conditions next week. Waypoints listed below

Wind forecast Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Tue, June 27
15: 090-120/11-16
18: 090-120/12-18
Weatherfair to partly cloudy
Seas 4-6 ft, mainly E swell

Wed, June 28 - if you leave today, you will run into the adverse conditions further to the N and NE on Thu
00: 080-110/ 10-15
06: 090-120/ 12-17
12: 080-110/ 12-17
18: 070-100/ 14-8
WeatherFair to partly, but then maybe some clouds with a few showers/squalls overnight toward daybreak Seas 4-6 ft

Thu, June 29
00: 050-080/ 10-15
06: 060-090/ 14-20, watch for showers/squalls approaching from the east
12: 050-080/ 15-22, squalls to 30 kts?
18: 080-110/ 10-20, squalls into low 30s? depart??
WeatherVariable to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible some squally conditions

Seas building to 10 ft, wind wave chop with E swell

Fri, June 30
00: 100-120/17-25, squally
06: 100-130/20-28
12: 100-130/20-30 nr 20 15n/63 45w
18: 090-110/26-15 or less
WeatherVariable to mostly cloudy with a few showers/squalls, but decreases in coverage/intensity to the N and NE later in day/night Seas 7-10 ft, wind wave chop with E or E-SE swell

Sat, July 1
00: 100-120/15-22
12: 090-110/13-18 nr 23 19n/62 40w

WeatherVariable cloudiness with decreasing chance of showers as you get to the N and NE
Seas down to 6-8 ft, E or E-SE swell

Sun, July 2
00: 090-110/12-20
12: 090-110/10-15 nr 26n/61 20w
WeatherPartly cloudy, but chance of an isolated shower/squall Seas down to 5-7 ft, E or E-SE swell

Mon, July 3 - may be able to get more E, if the breeze becomes lighter from SE
00: 080-110/8-13
12: 110-140/8-14 nr 28 30n/60w
WeatherPartly cloudy, but chance of an isolated shower/squall
Seas down to 3-5 ft, SE swell

Tue, July 4
00: 120-150/6-12 or less
12: 140-170/10-15 nr 30 30n/57 30w

WeatherPartly cloudy, but chance of an isolated shower/squall Seas 3-5 ft, SE swell

Best regards,
Chris Wasserback




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