Offshore training Weekend Seminars Consultancy

Leg 8-2006 Oban, Scotland to Ellos, Sweden




Originally From: "Commanders' Weather" <CommandersWeather@compuserve.com>

To: John Neal and sy "Mahina"
From: Commanders Weather Corporation
Route: Kirkwall, Orkney Islands to Mandol, Norway, as soon as
practical Prepared: 0600utc Saturday, September 16, 2006


Summary:

1) Not unusual for stormy weather in the Orkneys, but some fairly robust storm systems will be affecting the Islands over the next 7 days, so when the opportunity arises to depart, you should go and go quickly

2) 1st low is near 55N/23W this morning and will move N towards Iceland
    a) S-SE winds will be over 20 kts more than under later today and tonight
    b) unfortunately this will be upwind to Mandol, so will need to wait for the cold front to pass with a wind shift into the SW and W
    c) it appears the front will arrive around 1400-1800UTC Sunday

3) Once you get the wind shift, I suggest you depart
    a) the good news - the winds will become quite light behind this front, but
    b) the bad news - the winds will become quite light behind this front and the seas will still be rough, so it could be uncomfortable, but

4) Another major low will be moving E across the North Atlantic Sun/Mon
    a) this developing gale will be near 57-58N/34-35W Sun morning and 56-58N/20-22W Mon morning before heading ENE into central Norway late Wed
    b) this low will bring increasing SE and possibly ESE winds in the Orkneys and you will be racing the arrival of these stronger headwinds - the further E you are, the longer it will take for the strong winds to arrive. Also, the further E you are, the strong winds will be a bit softer and the wind directions may be more S-SE instead of SE and ESE
    c) regardless, if you don't depart Sunday afternoon/early evening, then you will have to wait for this gale to pass and then there will be larger/stronger low for late in the week, so you could be stuck in the Orkney's until next weekend

5) With departure Sunday afternoon, I have the next SE winds arriving for you late Mon/Mon night
    a) could go a little S of rhumb line to set-up for a better angle for the SE winds Mon night/Tue morning, but would prefer you to be further along the track then back to the SW and playing for wind angle. Being further E will reduce the gale threat
    b) I have the cold front arriving about the time of your arrival in Mandol Tuesday afternoon

6) There will be a much stronger/larger low during the 2nd half of the week
    a) this low may have some of the energy from hurricane Gordon, so it could be quite robust
    b) this low will be near 58-59N/25-30W Wed morning and move thru the northwest UK late Friday
    c) your winds will increase from this low late Wed/Wed night - the further E you are, the lighter the winds
    d) this monster low will start to spin down, weaken, and move NNE on Fri/next Sat

Bottom-line, looks like a small opportunity to depart Sunday afternoon, once you get the wind shift into the SW and W and then boogey as quickly/safely as possible for Mandol, otherwise you will be waiting for certain until next weekend

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC


Sat, Sept 16
12: 160-180/16-22, gust 28
18: 150-170/17-23, gust 30
Weather: Fog/drizzle may lift to some patchy sunshine this afternoon, but clouds, fog, mist, and showers return overnight.

Sun, Sept 17
00: 150-170/17-23, gust 26-28
06: 160-180/16-22
12: 170-190/20-12
18: 220-240/16-10, departing somewhere between 1400 and 1800UTC
Weather: Showers, fog, and mist ending with the wind shift then cloudy to partly cloudy. Seas 6-10 feet, but slowly diminishing

Mon, Sept 18
00: 260-300/10-5
06: 330-010/ 4-7, tending to light/variable
12: Light/variable, becoming 100-130/ 5-10, near 58 45N/01 30E
18: 150-170/10-16, new SE winds will be increasing from W to E across the delivery route
Weather: Partly cloudy to cloudy, maybe some mist or a few showers overnight. Seas 3-5 feet, but increasing quickly overnight

Tue, Sept 19
00: 150-170/16-22
06: 150-170/15-21, much stronger further W in the North Sea
12: 200-230/18-24, squalls 30-35 with the cold front, near Mandol
18: 240-270/16-22
Weather: Mostly cloudy with showers, mist, fog being joined by squalls during the daylight hrs. Some clearing late in the day. Seas 6-9 feet from the S, but falling to 5-7 feet overnight

Wed, Sept 20 - Mandol
00: 240-270/15-21, much lighter in the Harbor
12: 210-180/16-22, departing and heading E
Weather: Partly cloudy to cloudy. Seas 3-6 feet early, but increasing in Mandol, but unlikely you will see much of an increase further E

Thu, Sept 21
00: 170-190/15-30, strongest winds SW Norway and lighter near Gotteburg
12: 180-200/16-24
Weather: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers and mist, especially around Norway. Seas up to 8-12 feet around Mandol and westward. Very stormy in the Orkneys

Fri, Sept 22
00: 170-190/12-18
12: 170-200/ 8-16
Weather: Overnight and early morning mist/fog otherwise cloudy to partly cloudy, chance of a shower or 2.

Best Regards, Ken Campbell



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