Weather Forecast
To: John Neal - "Mahina Tiare"
Fm: CWC
Dt: 1315UTC Thu, 11/18/04

Lautoka, Fiji to Opua, NZ, nr 24 06s/176 03e at 12 utc Thu SummaryBrisk/strong SE flow continues for the next 24 hrs, then weakens on Sat and may become quite light by Sun before a NW breeze develops ahead of the front on Mon!!

1) High pressure (1027 mb) is currently situated just W of Cape Riegna and expanding SE

2) Mainly a SE wind flow ahead of this high, and will increase some over the next 12-24 hrs as a trough of low pressure develops to the east near 170w.
a) Winds may be come up to 25 knots in the next 24 hrs, possible some gusts to 30 knots.
b) Wind direction mainly 120-150, but could go to 160-170 at times
c) So think you will continue with the tight angles, if you stay on rhumb line course
3) Breeze will diminish on Sat as you get further south closer to the ridge of high pressure, which will be slowly sliding more east.
a) Most likely down in the 10-20 knot range, especially during the day

4) Look for much lighter winds during Sunday as you get under the ridge axis.
a) Winds may shift more left into the S-SE before becoming light/variable later in day or night

5) Winds light under the ridge into early Mon, then becomes NW by later in the day as the ridge shifts more east

6) The next frontal system moves across the Tasman Sea on Monday and approaches northern NZL on Tue.

7) Ahead of the front, look for an increasing NW breeze on Tue.
a) Think winds increase to 20-25 knots by early Tue AM, then
b) May be up to 25-35 knots along with more clouds and showers/squalls

8) Front moves east and most likely moves thru the Opua region late tue night or early Wed.

Routing Suggest a slightly west of rhumb line route. With the SE flow,think you may have to bear off more to the west of rhumb line over the next 24-36 hrs. Winds expected to become lighter over the weekend and will turn into the NW by Mon. As the breeze becomes light, you will have to motor and then suggest getting back on a rhumb line route. You should have favorable NW or N-NW breeze approaching Opua late Mon or on Tue, but may be quite gusty Waypoints listed below!!!

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC

Thu, 11/18
18: 120-140/18-26
Weather - Partly to variably cloudy with a few isolated showers Seas up to 10 ft, wind wave chop with S swell

Fri, 11/19
00: 130-150/18-24
06: 130-150/20-26
12: 120-140/17-23, near 26 30S/175E
18: 120-140/16-22
Weather - Partly cloudy, maybe isolated shower Seas to 10-13 ft, wind wave chop with S swell

Sat, 11/20
00: 130-160/10-15
06: 130-150/12-17
12: 130-150/12-18, near 29S/174 20E
18: 110-130/10-15 or less
Weather - Partly cloudy to fair.
Seas down to 7-10 ft, less wind wave chop with S to SE swell

Sun, 11/21
00: 140-170/7-13
06: 140-170/5-10 or less
12: bcmg 030-060/4-8, near 31 30S/173 45E
18: Light/Variable
Weather - Partly cloudy to fair.
Seas down to 4-6 ft, mainly swell

Mon, 11/22
00: 320-350/5-10
06: 330-350/8-14
12: 330-350/12-18, near 34S/173 45E
18: 340-360/18-26, higher gusts?
Weather - Increasing clouds with greater threat of showers/squalls later in the day/night
Seas down to 2-4ft, then building to 6-8 ft later in day

Tue, 11/23 - vicinity of Opua!!
00: 360-020/20-30 - squally?
06: 360-020/25-35 - squally?
12: 350-010/25-35
18: 300-330/10-16
Weather - Variably to mostly cloudy with showers/squalls - watch out for periods of heavy rain w/gusts up to 40-45 knots Seas up to 8-11 ft offshore

Rgds, Chris Wasserback